Chart: Does Arkansas MMJ Legalization Stand a Chance With Two Competing Measures?

By Eli McVey

Medical marijuana in Arkansas is dead in the water.

This is the popular thinking among many industry insiders now that two competing MMJ initiatives have made the Arkansas ballot this fall.

But dont lose hope just yet.

Both initiatives have strong support from voters, andevidence from previous elections where competing proposals made the ballot suggests that at least one if not both measures could win.

The Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act (AMCA) was the first initiative to make the ballot back in early July, garnering 77,516 verified signatures.A competing legalization proposal called the Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment (AMMA) then qualified on Aug. 31 with 97,284verified signatures.

The measures both call for the legalization and regulation of medical marijuana, but they differ in several key ways. The AMCA, for example,would establish approximately 39 nonprofit, vertically-integrated dispensaries throughout the state, and allow for home cultivation in certain circumstances. Alternatively, the AMMA would authorize for-profit business between 20 to 40 dispensaries and four to eight cultivators and not allow for any home cultivation. A detailed breakdown of each initiative can be found here.

So what happens when similar measures appear before voters?

Such situations are rare, making it difficult to predict what might happen in this case.

But a 2010 study provides some insight and cause for hope. The British Journal of Political Science examined the outcomes of elections in California between 1968 and 2005 where competing ballot initiatives were placed before voters. The report found that at least one initiative passed half the time.

When both ballot initiatives fail, its often because the two are presented to voters as opposites as in, if you are for one initiative, youre against the other. A polarizing campaign that pushes voters towards one measure over the other splits support, causing both proposals to fail.

In the absence of a particularly divisive campaign between the two MMJ initiatives, and assuming that most Arkansas voters are not well-versed enough in the nuances of each measure to prefer one over the other, its possible both legalization proposals could pass.

This scenario is even more realistic given that a poll taken in June found that both initiatives have support from more than 60% of voters.

The poll, however, did not question voters on both the AMCA and AMMA simultaneously. Rather, one group was asked to weigh in only on the AMCA initiative, while a separate ...